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Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Heerenveen 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Heerenveen 1-0 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.99 xG and Heerenveen 1.03 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Feyenoord fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Heerenveen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.11 / defence 0.85 against Heerenveen attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 60% | Draw 22% | Heerenveen 19%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 60%, Heerenveen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Feyenoord's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Heerenveen's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Heerenveen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights