🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Feyenoord at 66% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Groningen encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Groningen travel to Stadion Feijenoord to take on Feyenoord. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 2 April 2025, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Feyenoord are significantly better at Stadion Feijenoord than their overall form suggests.

Groningen — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Groningen's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Feyenoord 1.50 PPG, Groningen 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Feyenoord, 0 for Groningen and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Feyenoord trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Groningen trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 58% versus Groningen 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 67% | Groningen 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.18 xG and Groningen 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.215 / defence 0.906 | Groningen attack 0.743 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.343. Data: 60 Feyenoord games / 26 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Feyenoord 66% | Draw 20% | Groningen 14%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Groningen 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 60% | Groningen 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights