🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Feyenoord (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face Fortuna Sittard.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard meet at De Kuip in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 17 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Feyenoord have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Feyenoord have posted 8W 1D 1L at De Kuip — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Kuip.

Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fortuna Sittard have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form favours the hosts. Feyenoord's 2.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Fortuna Sittard's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Feyenoord have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 8 meetings, with Fortuna Sittard managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with Feyenoord winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 58% versus Fortuna Sittard 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 58% | Fortuna Sittard 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.79 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.041 / defence 0.733 | Fortuna Sittard attack 1.058 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.387. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Feyenoord games / 38 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Feyenoord 54% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Sittard 23%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Fortuna Sittard 4.35. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 40% | Fortuna Sittard 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights