Feyenoord 1-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face Fortuna Sittard.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard meet at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Feyenoord have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Feyenoord have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stadion Feijenoord — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Feijenoord.
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Feyenoord's 2.30 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Fortuna Sittard's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Feyenoord have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with Fortuna Sittard managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Feyenoord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 55% versus Fortuna Sittard 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 66% | Fortuna Sittard 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.02 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.127 / defence 0.885 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.728 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.248. Data: 47 Feyenoord games / 47 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 66% | Draw 20% | Fortuna Sittard 14%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Fortuna Sittard 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 40% | Fortuna Sittard 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 66% | Draw 20% | Fortuna Sittard 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 48% | xG Feyenoord 2.02 / Fortuna Sittard 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.127 / def 0.885 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.728 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (66%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Fortuna Sittard xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
Feyenoord 1 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 66% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (6 meetings): Feyenoord 4W | Draws 2 | Fortuna Sittard 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Sittard's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.73x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
66%
1.52
20%
4.94
14%
7.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.83
0.80
Fortuna Sittard xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
7.17
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
13%
7.56
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
2%
54.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.80 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Feyenoord have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 34W 10D 3L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard's form line: 14W 13D 20L from 47 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 1.21 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Feyenoord have posted 2.39 PPG from 23 outings (17W 4D 2L).
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 3W 7D 13L from 23 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortuna Sittard's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.62 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.09 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 34W 10D 3L in their last 47 games (2.38 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 14W 13D 20L in their last 47 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.39 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Fortuna Sittard been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Fortuna Sittard in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-0 on 5 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
3
Draws
0
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 7, Fortuna Sittard have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 1-2 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 44%, Fortuna Sittard 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Feyenoord) and 52% (Fortuna Sittard). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard in 30%; Fortuna Sittard in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Fortuna Sittard?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 30% of Fortuna Sittard's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Feyenoord's matches and 52% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.02 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.80 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Feyenoord fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.13 / defence 0.89 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.73 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 66% | Draw 20% | Fortuna Sittard 14%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 66%, Fortuna Sittard 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.