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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Excelsior 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Excelsior 2-1 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.17 xG and Excelsior 1.20 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.26 / defence 1.09 against Excelsior attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 59% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 20%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 62%, Excelsior 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Feyenoord's trading profile (60 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Excelsior's trading profile (60 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Feyenoord 1.95 PPG, Excelsior 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feyenoord win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights