🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Almere City FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Almere City FC 2-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.88 xG and Almere City FC 0.84 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.24 / defence 0.89 against Almere City FC attack 0.70 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 62% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 16%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 66%, Almere City FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Feyenoord's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Almere City FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights