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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Feyenoord and Ajax share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord and Ajax finished level at 1-1 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.13 xG and Ajax 1.60 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Feyenoord fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.23 / defence 1.09 against Ajax attack 1.08 / defence 1.02, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 49% | Draw 23% | Ajax 28%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 62%, Ajax 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Feyenoord's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Ajax's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Feyenoord 1.97 PPG, Ajax 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights