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Shock result as Telstar defy the odds to beat FC Volendam 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat FC Volendam 1-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.43 xG and Telstar 1.21 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.74 / defence 1.08 against Telstar attack 0.87 / defence 1.13, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 38% | Draw 33% | Telstar 28%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Telstar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, Telstar 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Telstar's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.61 PPG, Telstar 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights