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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Sparta Rotterdam defy the odds to beat FC Volendam 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam beat FC Volendam 0-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.49 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.30 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Volendam fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.87 / defence 0.97, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 42% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 33%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Sparta Rotterdam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 76%, Sparta Rotterdam 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Sparta Rotterdam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights