FC Volendam 1-5 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (81%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as FC Volendam face PSV Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
PSV Eindhoven travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam in Eredivisie (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 15:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Volendam stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — FC Volendam are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
PSV Eindhoven — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
PSV Eindhoven's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PSV Eindhoven are 2.10 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, PSV Eindhoven have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for FC Volendam. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended FC Volendam 1–3 PSV Eindhoven — a PSV Eindhoven win.
The H2H data backs the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 5.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
PSV Eindhoven in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 63% versus PSV Eindhoven 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 68% | PSV Eindhoven 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Volendam surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while PSV Eindhoven have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 0.61 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.669 / defence 1.299 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.512 / defence 0.573. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.421. FC Volendam's attack rating of 0.669 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.61. PSV Eindhoven bring a tight defence (rating 0.573, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling FC Volendam's projected output down. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack rating of 1.512, which lifts their away xG to 2.79. FC Volendam's defence rating of 1.299 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PSV Eindhoven's projected output up. Data: built from FC Volendam's last 54 games and PSV Eindhoven's last 54.
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 4% | Draw 15% | PSV Eindhoven 81%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 22.94 | Draw 6.89 | PSV Eindhoven 1.23. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (81%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Volendam's last 10 home games and PSV Eindhoven's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Volendam 50% (last 10 home games) | PSV Eindhoven 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 21 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 4% | Draw 15% | PSV Eindhoven 81% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG FC Volendam 0.61 / PSV Eindhoven 2.79 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.669 / def 1.299 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.512 / def 0.573 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.61
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
2.79
PSV Eindhoven xG
44%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven FAQs
What time does FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven?
FC Volendam 1 - 5 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 21) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 4% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 81% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Volendam's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against PSV Eindhoven's defensive record (0.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.61. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 2.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Volendam's last 54 games and PSV Eindhoven's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 13.0%. Close behind: 0-3 (12.1%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
4%
22.94
15%
6.89
81%
1.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
12.1%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.61
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.40
2.79
PSV Eindhoven xG
22.94
4%
Home win
6.89
15%
Draw
1.23
81%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
6%
16.28
54%
1.84
Win to Nil
0%
–
44%
2.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 9.3 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 4.7 |
| 1 | 2.0 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 0.61 expected goals for FC Volendam and 2.79 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 13W 9D 32L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 41W 8D 5L from 54 games, 2.43 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 1.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.35 PPG from their last 26 home games (11W 2D 13L). That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 16W 6D 4L from their last 26 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.19 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.81 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
FC Volendam (Home) vs PSV Eindhoven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Volendam
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven Form FAQs
What form are FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 13W 9D 32L in their last 54 games (0.89 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 41W 8D 5L in their last 54 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.35 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.08 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Aug 2022, when PSV Eindhoven won PSV Eindhoven 7-1 FC Volendam.
FC Volendam's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Volendam
0
Draws
5
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Volendam have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: FC Volendam 2-1 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 62%, PSV Eindhoven 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC Volendam and 73% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Volendam's games and 58% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Volendam's matches and 73% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 77% of PSV Eindhoven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 1-5 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat FC Volendam 1-5 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 0.61 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.79 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 2.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.67 / defence 1.30 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.51 / defence 0.57, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 4% | Draw 15% | PSV Eindhoven 81%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, PSV Eindhoven 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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