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Prediction vindicated as NEC Nijmegen edge out FC Volendam 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat FC Volendam 2-3 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.47 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.65 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.23 / defence 0.97, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 34% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 42%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 76%, NEC Nijmegen 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with NEC Nijmegen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights