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Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Heracles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat Heracles 3-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.83 xG and Heracles 1.14 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heracles landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.85 / defence 1.08 against Heracles attack 0.68 / defence 1.30, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 53% | Draw 23% | Heracles 24%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 74%, Heracles 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Heracles's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights