🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 2, as FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.39 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.63 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.13 / defence 0.93, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 31% | Draw 27% | AZ Alkmaar 42%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 76%, AZ Alkmaar 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights