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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 4

Kick-off

Sat 30 Aug 2025

20:00

Venue

Stadion Woudestein

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Twente Win

29%

Excelsior

3.40

29%

Draw

3.46

42%

Twente

2.40

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.0%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

9.7%

Away win

1 – 2

9.0%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.24

Excelsior xG

Total xG

2.75

1.51

Twente xG

29%
29%
42%
ExcelsiorDrawTwente

3.40

29%

Home win

3.46

29%

Draw

2.40

42%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.75

43%

BTTS No

2.33

Clean Sheet

22%

Excelsior

4.52

29%

Twente

3.45

Win to Nil

6%

Excelsior

15.40

12%

Twente

8.26

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.4 9.7 7.3 3.7 1.4 0.4
1 7.9 12.0 9.0 4.5 1.7 0.5
2 4.9 7.4 5.6 2.8 1.1 0.3
3 2.0 3.1 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.238
λ Away (xG) 1.509
Total xG 2.747
League avg home goals 1.734
League avg away goals 1.311
Excelsior attack strength 0.818
Excelsior defence strength 1.187
Twente attack strength 0.969
Twente defence strength 0.873
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 3 / 37