Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 69% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Excelsior host NEC Nijmegen at Stadion Woudestein in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's home record at Stadion Woudestein: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NEC Nijmegen stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Excelsior at 0.80 PPG versus NEC Nijmegen's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Excelsior register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, NEC Nijmegen in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour NEC Nijmegen, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Excelsior.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. NEC Nijmegen have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Excelsior trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 61% and NEC Nijmegen 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 67% | NEC Nijmegen 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 0.97 xG and NEC Nijmegen 2.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.620 / defence 1.524 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.863 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.728 / away 1.813. Excelsior's attack strength of 0.620 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Excelsior games / 45 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 14% | Draw 18% | NEC Nijmegen 69%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 7.14 | Draw 5.56 | NEC Nijmegen 1.45. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (69%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 60% | NEC Nijmegen 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Woudestein • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 14% | Draw 18% | NEC Nijmegen 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 56% | xG Excelsior 0.97 / NEC Nijmegen 2.38 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.620 / def 1.524 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.863 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.728 / away 1.813 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
2.38
NEC Nijmegen xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Stadion Woudestein.
Where is Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Woudestein.
What competition is Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 14% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 69% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (7 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 2 | NEC Nijmegen 4W.
What form are Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen in?
Excelsior (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (0.62) and NEC Nijmegen's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 2.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
14%
7.35
18%
5.68
69%
1.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.35
2.38
NEC Nijmegen xG
7.35
14%
Home win
5.68
18%
Draw
1.45
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
9%
10.86
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
1%
79.79
26%
3.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Excelsior and 2.38 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Excelsior's recent record stands at 13W 10D 23L from 46 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 11L across 46 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours NEC Nijmegen by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Excelsior heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 6W 3D 14L from 23 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 10W 7D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 2.11 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; NEC Nijmegen in 83%.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 13W 10D 23L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 19W 16D 11L in their last 46 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NEC Nijmegen's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 0.91 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 8 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Aug 2025, when NEC Nijmegen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Excelsior
2
Draws
4
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen?
From 7 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 1, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 8 September 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Excelsior at 56%, NEC Nijmegen at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Excelsior and 65% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Excelsior's games and 83% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Excelsior's matches and 65% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More Dutch football predictions →