Excelsior 0-2 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Excelsior host NEC Nijmegen at Stadion Woudestein in Eredivisie (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 4 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Excelsior have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Excelsior's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, NEC Nijmegen stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NEC Nijmegen — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Excelsior's games and 90% of NEC Nijmegen's (from Excelsior's last 10 home games and NEC Nijmegen's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Excelsior, 3 for NEC Nijmegen and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended Excelsior 0–5 NEC Nijmegen — a NEC Nijmegen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Excelsior trading profile (last 63 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (last 63 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 57% and NEC Nijmegen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 59% | NEC Nijmegen 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.09 xG and NEC Nijmegen 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.675 / defence 1.176 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.399 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.328. Excelsior's attack rating of 0.675 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. NEC Nijmegen have an above-average attack rating of 1.399, which lifts their away xG to 2.19. Data: built from Excelsior's last 28 games and NEC Nijmegen's last 62.
Result probabilities: Excelsior 17% | Draw 22% | NEC Nijmegen 61%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 5.96 | Draw 4.52 | NEC Nijmegen 1.64. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (61%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.09 / 2.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Excelsior's last 10 home games and NEC Nijmegen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Excelsior 60% (last 10 home games) | NEC Nijmegen 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadion Woudestein • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 17% | Draw 22% | NEC Nijmegen 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Excelsior 1.09 / NEC Nijmegen 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.675 / def 1.176 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.399 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.723 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
2.19
NEC Nijmegen xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen FAQs
What time does Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Stadion Woudestein.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Excelsior 0 - 2 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Woudestein.
What competition is Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 29) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 17% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 61% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (0.68) and NEC Nijmegen's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 2.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Excelsior's last 28 games and NEC Nijmegen's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
17%
5.96
22%
4.52
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.0%
Away win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.28
2.19
NEC Nijmegen xG
5.96
17%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
11%
8.89
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
2%
53.02
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Excelsior and 2.19 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Excelsior's recent record stands at 28W 13D 22L from 63 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 26W 15D 22L across 63 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Excelsior on 1.54 PPG, NEC Nijmegen on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 17W 5D 10L from their last 32 home games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 12W 6D 14L across their last 32 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.94 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen in 63%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Current Season
NEC Nijmegen
Current Season
Excelsior (Home) vs NEC Nijmegen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Excelsior
Current Season
NEC Nijmegen
Current Season
❓ Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen Form FAQs
What form are Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 28W 13D 22L in their last 63 games (1.54 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 26W 15D 22L in their last 63 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Excelsior's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.75 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Excelsior or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 8 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Aug 2025, when NEC Nijmegen won NEC Nijmegen 5-0 Excelsior.
Excelsior's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Excelsior
2
Draws
4
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Excelsior have won 1, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 September 2026: NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 47%, NEC Nijmegen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Excelsior) and 56% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; NEC Nijmegen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Excelsior's recent matches and 53% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Excelsior's recent games and 56% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Excelsior's recent matches and 72% of NEC Nijmegen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Excelsior 0-2 at Stadion Woudestein, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.09 xG and NEC Nijmegen 2.19 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Excelsior fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.68 / defence 1.18 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.40 / defence 0.94, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 17% | Draw 22% | NEC Nijmegen 61%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 59%, NEC Nijmegen 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.54 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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