Excelsior 4-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Excelsior host NAC Breda at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 June 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Excelsior at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. NAC Breda are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Excelsior have won 0, NAC Breda 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2024, ended 2–6 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Excelsior in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 60% and NAC Breda 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 74% | NAC Breda 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.92 xG and NAC Breda 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.965 / defence 0.966 | NAC Breda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.486. Data: 68 Excelsior games / 0 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 52% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 23%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | NAC Breda 4.35. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form NAC Breda (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior 40% | NAC Breda 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 52% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Excelsior 1.92 / NAC Breda 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.965 / def 0.966 | NAC Breda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.486 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.22
NAC Breda xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs NAC Breda kick off?
Excelsior vs NAC Breda kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs NAC Breda?
Excelsior 4 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is Excelsior vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs NAC Breda part of?
Excelsior vs NAC Breda is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 52% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Excelsior and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and NAC Breda?
Record (3 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 2W.
What form are Excelsior and NAC Breda in?
Excelsior (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 0.96x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.94
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.13
1.22
NAC Breda xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
3%
30.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Excelsior and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.22 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Excelsior's recent record stands at 11W 14D 22L from 47 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 24W 6D 17L across 47 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours NAC Breda by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Excelsior heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 8W 8D 7L from 23 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 11W 2D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.87 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 68%.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Current Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 11W 14D 22L in their last 47 games (1.00 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 24W 6D 17L in their last 47 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.39 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Excelsior go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Excelsior
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when NAC Breda 0-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and NAC Breda?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 56%, NAC Breda 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Excelsior and 83% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Excelsior's games and 70% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Excelsior's matches and 83% of NAC Breda's.
Do Excelsior and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 4-1 hammering of NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat NAC Breda 4-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.92 xG and NAC Breda 1.22 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 68/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 52% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 23%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 74%, NAC Breda 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Excelsior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.