Excelsior 4-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Excelsior at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Excelsior and Heracles meet at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Excelsior's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Excelsior have posted 2W 3D 5L at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Heracles (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Heracles are 0.50 PPG clear of Excelsior in recent Eredivisie fixtures (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Excelsior, 1 for Heracles and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Excelsior half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Heracles half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 54% versus Heracles 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 67% | Heracles 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.64 xG and Heracles 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.851 / defence 1.058 | Heracles attack 0.716 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.458. Data: 66 Excelsior games / 32 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 48% | Draw 28% | Heracles 24%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Heracles 4.17. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Heracles (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior 50% | Heracles 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 48% | Draw 28% | Heracles 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Excelsior 1.64 / Heracles 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.851 / def 1.058 | Heracles attack 0.716 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Heracles xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Heracles kick off?
Excelsior vs Heracles kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Heracles?
Excelsior 4 - 0 Heracles.
Where is Excelsior vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Heracles part of?
Excelsior vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 48% chance of winning, Heracles a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Excelsior and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Heracles?
Record (3 meetings): Excelsior 2W | Draws 0 | Heracles 1W.
What form are Excelsior and Heracles in?
Excelsior (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Heracles (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 0.85x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (0.72x) against Excelsior's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.55
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.74
1.10
Heracles xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
5%
21.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.10 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Excelsior come into this having played 66 games, going 14W 16D 36L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 1.62 PPG from 66 outings (33W 8D 25L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Heracles carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Excelsior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Excelsior's home form reads 11W 9D 13L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 1.27 points per game from 33 outings (13W 3D 17L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 2.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Current Season
Heracles
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Heracles in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 14W 16D 36L in their last 66 games (0.88 PPG), while Heracles have gone 33W 8D 25L in their last 66 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Heracles away?
Excelsior's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.27 PPG; Heracles away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 4-0 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Heracles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Excelsior
1
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Heracles?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, Heracles have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Heracles 1-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Heracles?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 54%, Heracles 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Excelsior and 73% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior have failed to score in 30% of games; Heracles in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Excelsior's recent matches and 54% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Excelsior's matches and 73% of Heracles's.
Do Excelsior and Heracles tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Heracles in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Heracles 4-0 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.64 xG and Heracles 1.10 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heracles landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.85 / defence 1.06 against Heracles attack 0.72 / defence 1.14, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 48% | Draw 28% | Heracles 24%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 67%, Heracles 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Heracles's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Excelsior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.