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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Excelsior 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Excelsior 1-2 at Stadion Woudestein, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.35 xG and Feyenoord 1.58 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Feyenoord attack 1.17 / defence 0.88, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Excelsior 31% | Draw 28% | Feyenoord 41%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 57%, Feyenoord 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Excelsior's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Feyenoord's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.91 PPG, Feyenoord 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feyenoord win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights