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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Excelsior and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Woudestein, Regular Season - 33, as Excelsior and FC Volendam drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.65 xG and FC Volendam 0.92 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against FC Volendam attack 0.66 / defence 1.09, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Excelsior 51% | Draw 31% | FC Volendam 18%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 60%, FC Volendam 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Excelsior's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

FC Volendam's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.54 PPG, FC Volendam 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights