Emmen 1-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Relegation Round as Emmen welcome Almere City FC to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 June 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Emmen have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Almere City FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Almere City FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Emmen at 1.00 PPG versus Almere City FC's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Emmen, 1 for Almere City FC and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2023, ended 0–2 with Almere City FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Almere City FC trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 49% versus Almere City FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 51% | Almere City FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.25 xG and Almere City FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.639 / defence 1.163 | Almere City FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.314. Emmen's attack strength of 0.639 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Emmen games / 0 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 34% | Draw 30% | Almere City FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Almere City FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 30% | Almere City FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 34% | Draw 30% | Almere City FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Emmen 1.25 / Almere City FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.639 / def 1.163 | Almere City FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Almere City FC xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Almere City FC kick off?
Emmen vs Almere City FC kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Emmen 1 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is Emmen vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Almere City FC part of?
Emmen vs Almere City FC is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 34% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Emmen and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Almere City FC?
Record (3 meetings): Emmen 1W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are Emmen and Almere City FC in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Emmen's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.31
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.55
1.30
Almere City FC xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
9%
10.88
10%
9.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Emmen and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Emmen and 1.30 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Emmen come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 11D 20L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.14 PPG from 43 outings (13W 10D 20L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.09 PPG, Almere City FC on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Emmen's home form reads 7W 9D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.49 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 12W 11D 20L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 13W 10D 20L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Almere City FC away?
Emmen's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.43 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Emmen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Emmen
1
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Emmen have won 1, Almere City FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Almere City FC 4-2 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 33%, Almere City FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Emmen) and 67% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Emmen's recent matches and 71% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Emmen's recent games and 67% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Almere City FC edge out Emmen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Emmen 1-2 at De Oude Meerdijk, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.25 xG and Almere City FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.64 / defence 1.16 against Almere City FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 34% | Draw 30% | Almere City FC 36%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 51%, Almere City FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.09 PPG, Almere City FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.