Dordrecht 2-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and De Graafschap meet at M-Scores Stadion in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht at M-Scores Stadion this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
De Graafschap (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dordrecht lead 1W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 63% and De Graafschap 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 56% | De Graafschap 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.56 xG and De Graafschap 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | De Graafschap attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.326. Data: 0 Dordrecht games / 0 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 42% | Draw 28% | De Graafschap 30%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | De Graafschap 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 40% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 42% | Draw 28% | De Graafschap 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Dordrecht 1.56 / De Graafschap 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | De Graafschap attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.30
De Graafschap xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kick off?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Dordrecht 2 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap part of?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 42% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dordrecht and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
Record (7 meetings): Dordrecht 1W | Draws 4 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.85x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.64
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.86
1.30
De Graafschap xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
6%
15.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.30 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 18W 17D 6L from 41 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 14L across 41 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.59 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 11W 7D 2L from 20 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 8W 3D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.59 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 18W 17D 6L in their last 41 games (1.73 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 19W 8D 14L in their last 41 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or De Graafschap away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.00 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
5
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 2, De Graafschap have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 55%, De Graafschap 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Dordrecht and 70% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Dordrecht's games and 65% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Dordrecht's matches and 70% of De Graafschap's.
Do Dordrecht and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat De Graafschap 2-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.56 xG and De Graafschap 1.30 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against De Graafschap attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 42% | Draw 28% | De Graafschap 30%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 56%, De Graafschap 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
De Graafschap's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.73 PPG, De Graafschap 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.