🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Den Bosch's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion De Vliert, Relegation Round, as Den Bosch and Telstar drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.58 xG and Telstar 1.27 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Telstar landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Telstar attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 42% | Draw 29% | Telstar 29%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 55%, Telstar 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Telstar's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Den Bosch 0.92 PPG, Telstar 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights