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Prediction vindicated as Den Bosch edge out Cambuur 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat Cambuur 1-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.57 xG and Cambuur 1.31 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cambuur landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Cambuur attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 42% | Draw 27% | Cambuur 31%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 58%, Cambuur 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Cambuur's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Den Bosch 0.87 PPG, Cambuur 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights