Cambuur 0-3 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 31 as Cambuur welcome Utrecht to Cambuur Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cambuur at Cambuur Stadion this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Utrecht — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Utrecht have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Utrecht — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cambuur, 1 for Utrecht and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Utrecht trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 55% versus Utrecht 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 66% | Utrecht 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.31 xG and Utrecht 2.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.709 / defence 1.418 | Utrecht attack 1.271 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.273. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Utrecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — the away xG of 2.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Cambuur games / 64 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 20% | Draw 21% | Utrecht 58%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 5.00 | Draw 4.76 | Utrecht 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Utrecht (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 2.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.61 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cambuur 40% | Utrecht 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 20% | Draw 21% | Utrecht 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Cambuur 1.31 / Utrecht 2.29 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.709 / def 1.418 | Utrecht attack 1.271 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.29
Utrecht xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Utrecht kick off?
Cambuur vs Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Cambuur 0 - 3 Utrecht.
Where is Cambuur vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Utrecht part of?
Cambuur vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 20% chance of winning, Utrecht a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Cambuur and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Utrecht?
Record (3 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 1 | Utrecht 1W.
What form are Cambuur and Utrecht in?
Cambuur (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 0.71x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 2.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 1-3 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
20%
4.96
21%
4.69
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
1 – 3
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.61
2.29
Utrecht xG
4.96
20%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
10%
9.92
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
2%
49.20
16%
6.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.29 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cambuur come into this having played 64 games, going 15W 10D 39L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Utrecht sit at 1.42 PPG from 64 outings (24W 19D 21L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Utrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Cambuur — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cambuur's home form reads 7W 3D 22L across 32 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Utrecht have taken 1.19 points per game from 32 outings (10W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.50 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht in 61%.
Last 64 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 15W 10D 39L in their last 64 games (0.86 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 24W 19D 21L in their last 64 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Utrecht away?
Utrecht's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.75 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2023, when Utrecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cambuur
1
Draws
2
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Utrecht?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, Utrecht have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Cambuur 0-3 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 62%, Utrecht 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Cambuur and 72% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cambuur's games and 62% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Cambuur's matches and 72% of Utrecht's.
Do Cambuur and Utrecht tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Utrecht run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Cambuur 0-3 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.31 xG and Utrecht 2.29 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.71 / defence 1.42 against Utrecht attack 1.27 / defence 1.15, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 20% | Draw 21% | Utrecht 58%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 66%, Utrecht 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Utrecht's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.