Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kooi Stadion plays host to Cambuur versus Sparta Rotterdam in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 28 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cambuur's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's home record at Kooi Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sparta Rotterdam (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cambuur register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sparta Rotterdam in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Cambuur 1W, Sparta Rotterdam 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 1–4 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Sparta Rotterdam half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 69% and Sparta Rotterdam 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 67% | Sparta Rotterdam 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.21 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.123 / defence 1.124 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.040 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.842. Data: 11 Cambuur games / 45 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 41% | Draw 20% | Sparta Rotterdam 39%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.44 | Draw 5.00 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 20% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 79% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 70% | Sparta Rotterdam 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 41% | Draw 20% | Sparta Rotterdam 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 79% | xG Cambuur 2.21 / Sparta Rotterdam 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.123 / def 1.124 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.040 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.842 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Sparta Rotterdam xG
79%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Kooi Stadion.
Where is Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 41% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 39% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both Cambuur and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 1 | Sparta Rotterdam 2W.
What form are Cambuur and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Cambuur (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.12x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sparta Rotterdam's attack (1.04x) against Cambuur's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 2.15.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (6.9%), 2-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
41%
2.44
20%
5.02
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
6.7%
Home win
1 – 2
6.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Cambuur xG
Total xG
4.36
2.15
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.44
41%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.27
21%
BTTS No
4.70
Clean Sheet
12%
8.61
11%
9.07
Win to Nil
5%
21.01
4%
23.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.2%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.15 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 4.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambuur come into this having played 45 games, going 24W 12D 9L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Rotterdam sit at 1.22 PPG from 45 outings (15W 10D 20L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cambuur's home form reads 13W 5D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (8W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.33 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 24W 12D 9L in their last 45 games (1.87 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 15W 10D 20L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Cambuur's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.00 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sparta Rotterdam go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-4 on 26 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cambuur
1
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Sparta Rotterdam 4-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 64%, Sparta Rotterdam 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Cambuur and 73% for Sparta Rotterdam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Sparta Rotterdam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Cambuur's games and 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Cambuur's matches and 73% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Cambuur and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.