Cambuur vs Heerenveen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Heerenveen at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Heerenveen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kooi Stadion plays host to Cambuur versus Heerenveen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cambuur have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Kooi Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Heerenveen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Cambuur against 1.20 for Heerenveen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, Heerenveen have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Cambuur's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 1–2 with Heerenveen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Heerenveen have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Heerenveen half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 70% and Heerenveen 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 66% | Heerenveen 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.42 xG and Heerenveen 2.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.914 / defence 1.353 | Heerenveen attack 0.992 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.782. Data: 8 Cambuur games / 43 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 21% | Draw 21% | Heerenveen 58%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 4.76 | Draw 4.76 | Heerenveen 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Heerenveen (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 2.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.81 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 70% | Heerenveen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 21% | Draw 21% | Heerenveen 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 70% | xG Cambuur 1.42 / Heerenveen 2.39 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.914 / def 1.353 | Heerenveen attack 0.992 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.782 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.39
Heerenveen xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Heerenveen kick off?
Cambuur vs Heerenveen is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Kooi Stadion.
Where is Cambuur vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Heerenveen part of?
Cambuur vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 21% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Cambuur and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Heerenveen?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 1 | Heerenveen 3W.
What form are Cambuur and Heerenveen in?
Cambuur (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (0.91) and Heerenveen's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Heerenveen's attack (0.99x) against Cambuur's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 2.39.
These ratings are built from 8/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 1-3 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
21%
4.85
21%
4.65
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
1 – 3
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.81
2.39
Heerenveen xG
4.85
21%
Home win
4.65
21%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
9%
10.92
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
2%
53.01
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.39 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Heerenveen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambuur's recent record stands at 23W 12D 9L from 44 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 15L across 44 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambuur by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heerenveen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 12W 6D 4L from 22 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 7W 5D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.68 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 23W 12D 9L in their last 44 games (1.84 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 17W 12D 15L in their last 44 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Heerenveen away?
Cambuur's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.91 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Heerenveen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cambuur
1
Draws
3
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Heerenveen?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 0, Heerenveen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Cambuur 1-2 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 68%, Heerenveen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Cambuur and 73% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Heerenveen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cambuur's games and 54% of Heerenveen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Cambuur's matches and 73% of Heerenveen's.
Do Cambuur and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.