Cambuur 4-0 GO Ahead Eagles – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cambuur at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kooi Stadion plays host to Cambuur versus GO Ahead Eagles in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 31 October 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cambuur have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kooi Stadion, Cambuur have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
GO Ahead Eagles's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GO Ahead Eagles away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Cambuur, 1.40 for GO Ahead Eagles — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cambuur register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, GO Ahead Eagles in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Cambuur 2W, GO Ahead Eagles 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 4–1 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cambuur — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
GO Ahead Eagles — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 70% and GO Ahead Eagles 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 66% | GO Ahead Eagles 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.33 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.988 / defence 1.305 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.912 / defence 1.380. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.852. GO Ahead Eagles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.380 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Cambuur games / 44 GO Ahead Eagles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 42% | Draw 21% | GO Ahead Eagles 37%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.38 | Draw 4.76 | GO Ahead Eagles 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 81% | Total xG 4.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 81% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 2.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 42% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 83% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 81% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 70% | GO Ahead Eagles 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 42% | Draw 21% | GO Ahead Eagles 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 81% | xG Cambuur 2.33 / GO Ahead Eagles 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.988 / def 1.305 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.912 / def 1.380 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.852 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.20
GO Ahead Eagles xG
81%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles kick off?
Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Cambuur 4 - 0 GO Ahead Eagles.
Where is Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles part of?
Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 42% chance of winning, GO Ahead Eagles a 37% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our model estimates a 81% probability that both Cambuur and GO Ahead Eagles will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and GO Ahead Eagles?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 2W | Draws 1 | GO Ahead Eagles 1W.
What form are Cambuur and GO Ahead Eagles in?
Cambuur (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (0.99) and GO Ahead Eagles's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GO Ahead Eagles's attack (0.91x) against Cambuur's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 2.20.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (6.4%), 1-1 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
42%
2.38
21%
4.81
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
6.4%
Home win
1 – 2
6.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Cambuur xG
Total xG
4.54
2.20
GO Ahead Eagles xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
47%
Over 4.5
2.13
53%
Under 4.5
1.89
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
81%
BTTS Yes
1.23
19%
BTTS No
5.28
Clean Sheet
11%
9.05
10%
10.30
Win to Nil
5%
21.58
4%
27.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are Cambuur and GO Ahead Eagles expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.20 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined total of 4.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambuur come into this having played 44 games, going 23W 12D 9L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GO Ahead Eagles sit at 1.18 PPG from 44 outings (11W 19D 14L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for GO Ahead Eagles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of GO Ahead Eagles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cambuur's home form reads 12W 6D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, GO Ahead Eagles have taken 0.73 points per game from 22 outings (2W 10D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GO Ahead Eagles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; GO Ahead Eagles are on 1.75 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; GO Ahead Eagles in 68%.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and GO Ahead Eagles in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 23W 12D 9L in their last 44 games (1.84 PPG), while GO Ahead Eagles have gone 11W 19D 14L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or GO Ahead Eagles away?
Cambuur's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.91 PPG; GO Ahead Eagles away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Cambuur go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 4-0 on 31 Oct 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against GO Ahead Eagles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Cambuur
1
Draws
1
GO Ahead Eagles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and GO Ahead Eagles?
From 5 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, GO Ahead Eagles have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and GO Ahead Eagles last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Cambuur 4-0 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and GO Ahead Eagles?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Cambuur, 68% for GO Ahead Eagles — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Cambuur and 59% for GO Ahead Eagles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / GO Ahead Eagles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play GO Ahead Eagles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cambuur's games and 68% of GO Ahead Eagles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Cambuur's matches and 59% of GO Ahead Eagles's.
Do Cambuur and GO Ahead Eagles tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, GO Ahead Eagles in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambuur run riot with a 4-0 hammering of GO Ahead Eagles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat GO Ahead Eagles 4-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.33 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 2.20 xG, a combined 4.54. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GO Ahead Eagles landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.99 / defence 1.30 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.91 / defence 1.38, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 42% | Draw 21% | GO Ahead Eagles 37%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 81% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 66%, GO Ahead Eagles 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.