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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambuur and Den Bosch share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kooi Stadion, Relegation Round, as Cambuur and Den Bosch drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.56 xG and Den Bosch 1.30 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Den Bosch attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 42% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 30%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 72%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.21 PPG, Den Bosch 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights