AZ Alkmaar 1-0 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AZ Alkmaar face NEC Nijmegen.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AZ Alkmaar have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AZ Alkmaar at AFAS Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NEC Nijmegen away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in AZ Alkmaar's favour (2.20 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 3W, NEC Nijmegen 1W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 49% versus NEC Nijmegen 69%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 66% | NEC Nijmegen 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.70 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.138 / defence 0.990 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.221 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.328. NEC Nijmegen have an above-average attack strength of 1.221 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 AZ Alkmaar games / 35 NEC Nijmegen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 39% | Draw 26% | NEC Nijmegen 35%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | NEC Nijmegen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 50% | NEC Nijmegen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 39% | Draw 26% | NEC Nijmegen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.70 / NEC Nijmegen 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.138 / def 0.990 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.221 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.60
NEC Nijmegen xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 0 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 39% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (6 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 3W | Draws 2 | NEC Nijmegen 1W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (1.22x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.78
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.31
1.60
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
8%
12.84
6%
15.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.60 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 35 games, going 20W 8D 7L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.51 PPG from 35 outings (14W 11D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 11W 3D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.47 points per game from 17 outings (6W 7D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.91 scored and 1.46 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen in 69%.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 20W 8D 7L in their last 35 games (1.94 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 14W 11D 10L in their last 35 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.12 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.47 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
NEC Nijmegen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 0-3 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
3
Draws
3
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 1-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 47%, NEC Nijmegen 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for AZ Alkmaar and 71% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 71% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 71% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out NEC Nijmegen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat NEC Nijmegen 1-0 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.70 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.60 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NEC Nijmegen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.22 / defence 0.92, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 39% | Draw 26% | NEC Nijmegen 35%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 66%, NEC Nijmegen 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.