AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 1.11x the league average against Ajax's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
36%
2.77
23%
4.36
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.31
1.71
Ajax xG
2.77
36%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
7%
15.38
8%
12.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.71 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.