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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Waalwijk run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Almere City FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat Almere City FC 1-4 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.47 xG and Waalwijk 1.65 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 1.65 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.31 against Waalwijk attack 0.92 / defence 1.24, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 34% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 42%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 49%, Waalwijk 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Waalwijk's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.83 PPG, Waalwijk 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights