Almere City FC 1-4 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 2 February 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
Almere City FC's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Waalwijk have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Almere City FC, 1.00 for Waalwijk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Almere City FC 1W, Waalwijk 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Waalwijk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 43% versus Waalwijk 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 49% | Waalwijk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.47 xG and Waalwijk 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.708 / defence 1.315 | Waalwijk attack 0.920 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.362. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Almere City FC games / 54 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 34% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 42%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 40% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 34% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Almere City FC 1.47 / Waalwijk 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.708 / def 1.315 | Waalwijk attack 0.920 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Waalwijk xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Waalwijk kick off?
Almere City FC vs Waalwijk kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Almere City FC 1 - 4 Waalwijk.
Where is Almere City FC vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Waalwijk part of?
Almere City FC vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 34% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Almere City FC and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Waalwijk?
Record (3 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 1 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and Waalwijk in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.71x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.92x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
34%
2.92
24%
4.17
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.12
1.65
Waalwijk xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
7%
15.17
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.65 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 9W 17D 27L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk's form line: 9W 13D 31L from 53 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Almere City FC against 0.75 for Waalwijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 0.88 PPG from 26 outings (5W 8D 13L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 3W 5D 18L from 26 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.11 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 9W 17D 27L in their last 53 games (0.83 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 9W 13D 31L in their last 53 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Waalwijk away?
Almere City FC's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.88 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waalwijk won 1-4 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Waalwijk?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, Waalwijk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Almere City FC 2-2 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 46%, Waalwijk 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Almere City FC) and 58% (Waalwijk).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 38% of games; Waalwijk in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 58% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Almere City FC's recent games and 58% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almere City FC and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Waalwijk run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Almere City FC 1-4 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.47 xG and Waalwijk 1.65 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 1.65 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.31 against Waalwijk attack 0.92 / defence 1.24, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 34% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 42%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 49%, Waalwijk 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.83 PPG, Waalwijk 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.