Almere City FC vs Utrecht – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Utrecht's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (1.38x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.48.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
12%
8.43
17%
6.04
72%
1.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 3
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.39
2.48
Utrecht xG
8.43
12%
Home win
6.04
17%
Draw
1.40
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
8%
11.89
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
1%
100.28
29%
3.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.6 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Almere City FC and 2.48 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.