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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Sparta Rotterdam run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Almere City FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam beat Almere City FC 0-3 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 0.87 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.38 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.14 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.92 / defence 0.80, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 23% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 48%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 49%, Sparta Rotterdam 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Rotterdam arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights