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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle finished level at 2-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.24 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.63 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.28 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 29% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 46%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 48%, PEC Zwolle 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.85 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights