Almere City FC 1-0 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Almere City FC and NEC Nijmegen meet at Yanmar Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almere City FC have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC at Yanmar Stadion this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NEC Nijmegen (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
NEC Nijmegen arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 1–4 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 49% versus NEC Nijmegen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 49% | NEC Nijmegen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 0.80 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.646 / defence 1.495 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.936 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.310. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.646 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. NEC Nijmegen's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Almere City FC games / 43 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 15% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 61%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 6.67 | Draw 4.17 | NEC Nijmegen 1.64. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 70% | NEC Nijmegen 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 15% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG Almere City FC 0.80 / NEC Nijmegen 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.646 / def 1.495 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.936 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.83
NEC Nijmegen xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen?
Almere City FC 1 - 0 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 15% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 61% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Almere City FC and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (2 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 1 | NEC Nijmegen 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and NEC Nijmegen in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.65x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (0.94x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
15%
6.77
24%
4.12
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.63
1.83
NEC Nijmegen xG
6.77
15%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
2%
42.33
28%
3.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.83 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 7W 16D 20L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen's form line: 17W 12D 14L from 43 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, NEC Nijmegen are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almere City FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 0.81 PPG from 21 outings (3W 8D 10L).
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 7W 7D 7L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.77 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 7W 16D 20L in their last 43 games (0.86 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 17W 12D 14L in their last 43 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NEC Nijmegen's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.81 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NEC Nijmegen won 1-4 on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
1
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and NEC Nijmegen?
From 4 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Almere City FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 48%, NEC Nijmegen 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Almere City FC) and 62% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 43% of games; NEC Nijmegen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 57% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Almere City FC's recent games and 62% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almere City FC and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat NEC Nijmegen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat NEC Nijmegen 1-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 0.80 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.83 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NEC Nijmegen landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.65 / defence 1.50 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.94 / defence 0.79, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 15% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 61%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Almere City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 49%, NEC Nijmegen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.