🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Almere City FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as Almere City FC and GO Ahead Eagles drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.35 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.98 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. GO Ahead Eagles landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.32 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.17 / defence 1.11, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 26% | Draw 23% | GO Ahead Eagles 52%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 50%, GO Ahead Eagles 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, GO Ahead Eagles arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights