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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Almere City FC and Fortuna Sittard share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC and Fortuna Sittard finished level at 1-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.07 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.56 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.63 / defence 1.25 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 25% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Sittard 47%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 50%, Fortuna Sittard 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.82 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights