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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajax and Sparta Rotterdam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Johan Cruijff ArenA, Regular Season - 30, as Ajax and Sparta Rotterdam drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 1.75 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.98 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.28 / defence 0.81 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.93 / defence 0.83, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajax 55% | Draw 24% | Sparta Rotterdam 21%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 70%, Sparta Rotterdam 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajax's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights