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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajax and PSV Eindhoven share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax and PSV Eindhoven finished level at 2-2 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 1.66 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.47 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.13 / defence 0.87 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.32 / defence 0.85, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajax 39% | Draw 30% | PSV Eindhoven 31%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 57%, PSV Eindhoven 85%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajax's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajax 2.03 PPG, PSV Eindhoven 2.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights