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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajax cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PEC Zwolle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax beat PEC Zwolle 3-1 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 1.62 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.07 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ajax beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.05 / defence 0.77 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajax 50% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 25%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 54%, PEC Zwolle 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajax's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights