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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajax and Heerenveen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 11, as Ajax and Heerenveen drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 1.73 xG and Heerenveen 1.28 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 0.98 / defence 0.85 against Heerenveen attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajax 48% | Draw 24% | Heerenveen 28%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 57%, Heerenveen 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajax's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Heerenveen's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Heerenveen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights