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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Telstar defy the odds to beat ADO Den Haag 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat ADO Den Haag 0-1 at Bingoal Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.56 xG and Telstar 1.30 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. ADO Den Haag fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Telstar attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 42% | Draw 28% | Telstar 30%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Telstar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 72%, Telstar 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Telstar's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Telstar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Telstar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights