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Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 9

Kick-off

Tue 30 Sep 2025

19:00

Venue

Koning Willem II Stadion

Competition

Eerste Divisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Willem II Win

42%

Willem II

2.36

28%

Draw

3.61

30%

Helmond Sport

3.34

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

12.4%

Home win

0 – 1

10.0%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.30

Willem II xG

Total xG

2.36

1.05

Helmond Sport xG

42%
28%
30%
Willem IIDrawHelmond Sport

2.36

42%

Home win

3.61

28%

Draw

3.34

30%

Away win

Goals Markets

68%

Over 1.5

1.47

32%

Under 1.5

3.12

42%

Over 2.5

2.38

58%

Under 2.5

1.72

21%

Over 3.5

4.76

79%

Under 3.5

1.27

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

47%

BTTS Yes

2.11

53%

BTTS No

1.90

Clean Sheet

35%

Willem II

2.86

27%

Helmond Sport

3.69

Win to Nil

15%

Willem II

6.76

8%

Helmond Sport

12.30

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.5 10.0 5.2 1.8 0.5 0.1
1 12.4 13.0 6.8 2.4 0.6 0.1
2 8.1 8.5 4.5 1.6 0.4 0.1
3 3.5 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.2
4 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.305
λ Away (xG) 1.052
Total xG 2.357
League avg home goals 1.769
League avg away goals 1.390
Willem II attack strength 0.681
Willem II defence strength 0.965
Helmond Sport attack strength 0.784
Helmond Sport defence strength 1.084
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 8 / 46