Willem II 1-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Groningen travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Willem II have posted 7W 2D 1L at Koning Willem II Stadion — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Groningen — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Groningen's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Groningen's 2.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Willem II's 2.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Willem II, 1 for Groningen and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Willem II in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Groningen in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 62% versus Groningen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 59% | Groningen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.34 xG and Groningen 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.302 / defence 0.835 | Groningen attack 1.224 / defence 0.635. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.396. Willem II carry an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — their λ of 1.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Groningen's defence strength of 0.635 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Groningen have an above-average attack strength of 1.224 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 73 Willem II games / 35 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 35% | Draw 27% | Groningen 38%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Groningen 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 70% | Groningen 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Groningen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 35% | Draw 27% | Groningen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Willem II 1.34 / Groningen 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.302 / def 0.835 | Groningen attack 1.224 / def 0.635 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Groningen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Groningen xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Groningen kick off?
Willem II vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Groningen?
Willem II 1 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Willem II vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Groningen part of?
Willem II vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 35% chance of winning, Groningen a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Willem II and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Groningen?
Record (3 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 1 | Groningen 1W.
What form are Willem II and Groningen in?
Willem II (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Groningen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Willem II's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (0.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
35%
2.90
27%
3.68
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.77
1.43
Groningen xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
8%
12.07
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Willem II and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Willem II and 1.43 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 69 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.94 PPG on a 39W 17D 13L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Groningen's form line: 25W 13D 31L from 69 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Willem II have posted 2.24 PPG from 34 outings (24W 4D 6L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 11W 5D 18L from 34 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.99 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.42 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
Groningen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Groningen in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 39W 17D 13L in their last 69 games (1.94 PPG), while Groningen have gone 25W 13D 31L in their last 69 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Groningen away?
Willem II's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.24 PPG; Groningen away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Willem II or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Groningen in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Groningen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Willem II's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Willem II
2
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 1, Groningen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Willem II 1-3 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 65%, Groningen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Willem II and 56% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Groningen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Willem II's games and 47% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Willem II's matches and 56% of Groningen's.
Do Willem II and Groningen tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Groningen in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II and Groningen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II and Groningen finished level at 1-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.34 xG and Groningen 1.43 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.30 / defence 0.83 against Groningen attack 1.22 / defence 0.64, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 35% | Draw 27% | Groningen 38%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 59%, Groningen 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Groningen's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.