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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Volendam defy the odds to beat Willem II 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat Willem II 1-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Final, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.38 xG and FC Volendam 1.07 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.84 / defence 0.75 against FC Volendam attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 44% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 29%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual FC Volendam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 50%, FC Volendam 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Volendam's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Willem II 1.89 PPG, FC Volendam 2.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights