Willem II 0-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 2 as Willem II welcome FC Eindhoven to Koning Willem II Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 August 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. FC Eindhoven's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Willem II's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Willem II, 1 for FC Eindhoven and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 3–0 with Willem II winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 62% versus FC Eindhoven 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 51% | FC Eindhoven 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.31 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.860 / defence 1.150 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.084 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.291. Data: 1 Willem II games / 39 FC Eindhoven games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Willem II 31% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 44%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | FC Eindhoven 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 80% | FC Eindhoven 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 31% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Willem II 1.31 / FC Eindhoven 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.860 / def 1.150 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.084 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.61
FC Eindhoven xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Willem II vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?
Willem II 0 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Willem II vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Willem II vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 31% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Willem II and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and FC Eindhoven?
Record (4 meetings): Willem II 2W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Willem II and FC Eindhoven in?
Willem II (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.86) and FC Eindhoven's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
31%
3.20
24%
4.11
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.92
1.61
FC Eindhoven xG
3.20
31%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
6%
16.00
12%
8.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Willem II and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Willem II and 1.61 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II come into this having played 39 games, going 7W 9D 23L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.38 PPG from 39 outings (15W 9D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Willem II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Willem II's home form reads 4W 3D 12L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.79 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.63 points per game from 19 outings (9W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.51 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 7W 9D 23L in their last 39 games (0.77 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 15W 9D 15L in their last 39 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 0.79 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Willem II or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2023, when Willem II won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
1
Draws
2
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and FC Eindhoven?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, FC Eindhoven have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Eindhoven 0-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and FC Eindhoven?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 63%, FC Eindhoven 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Willem II and 58% for FC Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 32%; Willem II have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Willem II's games and 47% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Willem II's matches and 58% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Willem II and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Willem II 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Willem II 0-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.31 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.61 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Willem II fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.08 / defence 0.91, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 31% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 44%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 51%, FC Eindhoven 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.