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Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Willem II 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Willem II 0-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.32 xG and Cambuur 1.61 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Willem II fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Cambuur attack 1.23 / defence 0.96, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 31% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 44%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 51%, Cambuur 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Cambuur's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights