Waalwijk vs Roda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 22 as Waalwijk welcome Roda to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 3W 5D 2L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Roda — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Roda's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Waalwijk's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Waalwijk have won 1, Roda 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2026, ended 0–2 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Waalwijk trading profile (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Roda trading profile (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 76% and Roda 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 60% | Roda 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.55 xG and Roda 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.113 / defence 0.982 | Roda attack 0.819 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.827 / away 1.580. Roda's defence strength of 0.762 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Waalwijk games / 51 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 44% | Draw 25% | Roda 31%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Roda 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Roda (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 90% | Roda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 44% | Draw 25% | Roda 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Waalwijk 1.55 / Roda 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.113 / def 0.982 | Roda attack 0.819 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.827 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Roda xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Roda kick off?
Waalwijk vs Roda is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 15 January 2027 at Mandemakers Stadion.
Where is Waalwijk vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Roda part of?
Waalwijk vs Roda is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 44% chance of winning, Roda a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Waalwijk and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Roda?
Record (5 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 2 | Roda 2W.
What form are Waalwijk and Roda in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Roda (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.11) and Roda's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
44%
2.28
25%
4.01
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.82
1.27
Roda xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.27 for Roda, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 18W 19D 16L from 53 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 13L across 53 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.38 PPG, Roda on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 11W 8D 8L from 27 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 13W 9D 5L across 27 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.47 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Roda in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Roda in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 18W 19D 16L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while Roda have gone 21W 19D 13L in their last 53 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.52 PPG; Roda away: 1.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Roda runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 26 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Waalwijk won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Roda specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
2
Draws
2
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Roda?
From 5 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, Roda have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2026, when Roda 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Waalwijk at 82%, Roda at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Waalwijk and 59% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Waalwijk's games and 67% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Waalwijk's matches and 59% of Roda's.
Do Waalwijk and Roda tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Roda in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.