Waalwijk vs Roda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 22 as Waalwijk welcome Roda to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 5W 3D 2L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Waalwijk are significantly better at Mandemakers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Roda — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Roda away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Waalwijk) versus 1.40 (Roda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Roda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Waalwijk have won 1, Roda 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Waalwijk trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Roda trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 76% and Roda 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 63% | Roda 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.54 xG and Roda 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.114 / defence 1.074 | Roda attack 0.756 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.899 / away 1.685. Roda's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Waalwijk games / 44 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 42% | Draw 25% | Roda 34%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Roda 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 42% | Draw 25% | Roda 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Waalwijk 1.54 / Roda 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.114 / def 1.074 | Roda attack 0.756 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.899 / away 1.685 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Roda xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Roda kick off?
Waalwijk vs Roda is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 15 January 2027 at Mandemakers Stadion.
Where is Waalwijk vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Roda part of?
Waalwijk vs Roda is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 42% chance of winning, Roda a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Waalwijk and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Roda?
Record (4 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 2 | Roda 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and Roda in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Roda (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.11) and Roda's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
42%
2.41
25%
4.06
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.91
1.37
Roda xG
2.41
42%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.37 for Roda, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 17W 16D 13L from 46 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 12L across 46 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.46 PPG, Roda on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 10W 6D 7L from 23 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 11W 8D 4L across 23 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.48 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Roda in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Roda in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 17W 16D 13L in their last 46 games (1.46 PPG), while Roda have gone 17W 17D 12L in their last 46 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.57 PPG; Roda away: 1.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Roda runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Waalwijk won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Roda specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
2
Draws
1
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Roda?
From 4 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, Roda have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Waalwijk 1-1 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Waalwijk at 78%, Roda at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Waalwijk and 61% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Waalwijk's games and 70% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Waalwijk's matches and 61% of Roda's.
Do Waalwijk and Roda tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Roda in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.